Metal Fabrication Industry Report
April 2021
Exploratory Data Analysis
Distribution of the Response
Correlation between Covariates and Response
| Avg Pct Change | Sd Pct Change | Avg Vol | Pe Ratio | Price to Sales Ratio | Price to Book Ratio | Price to Fcf Ratio | Debt to Equity Ratio | Pays Dividend | Dividend Yield | Response | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| min | -1.2% | 0.7% | 1990 | 0.00 | 0.030 | -5.020 | 0.000 | -17.000 | 0.000 | 0% | -1.3800 |
| first_quart | -0.2% | 1.8% | 56400 | 7.96 | 0.510 | 0.903 | 0.132 | 0.450 | 0.000 | 0% | -0.2630 |
| median | 0% | 2.3% | 156000 | 14.60 | 0.745 | 1.360 | 9.760 | 0.820 | 1.000 | 0.5% | 0.0943 |
| mean | 0% | 2.7% | 392000 | 29.80 | 1.040 | 1.590 | 24.100 | 0.683 | 0.532 | 0.9% | 0.1230 |
| third_quart | 0.2% | 3.1% | 396000 | 22.50 | 0.990 | 1.980 | 23.100 | 1.130 | 1.000 | 1.7% | 0.5200 |
| max | 2.7% | 12.8% | 3060000 | 801.00 | 12.800 | 9.840 | 578.000 | 2.370 | 1.000 | 6.8% | 1.3300 |
Model Tuning
Random Forest Models
Gradient Boosted Models
Final Models
Random Forest Model
Model Info and Metrics
- min_n: 1, mtry: 5
- Mean Absolute Error: 0.108
- Root Mean Squared Error: 0.1793
Gradient Boosted Model
Model Info and Metrics
- learn_rate: 0.1, mtry: 7, tree_depth: 7
- Mean Absolute Error: 0.0058
- Root Mean Squared Error: 0.0077
Future Predictions
| Company | Quarter | Price | RF Prediction | GB Prediction |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PRLB | 2020 Q4 | $141.05 | 79.35% | 103.15% |
| CRS | 2020 Q4 | $23.16 | 30.72% | 32.55% |
| SGBX | 2020 Q3 | $2.39 | 28.6% | 31.54% |
| HAYN | 2020 Q4 | $20.77 | 26.85% | 53.17% |
| HIHO | 2020 Q4 | $3.75 | 23.67% | 63.64% |
| IIIN | 2020 Q4 | $22.64 | 10.48% | 2.7% |
| VMI | 2020 Q4 | $155.73 | 8.1% | 10.55% |
| MLI | 2020 Q4 | $32.03 | 3.1% | -1.96% |
| NWPX | 2020 Q4 | $28.33 | -4.72% | -1.72% |
| AP | 2020 Q4 | $4.61 | -11.46% | -5.13% |
| MEC | 2020 Q4 | $11.06 | -29.67% | -48.54% |
| RYI | 2020 Q4 | $9.8 | -32.39% | -26.67% |
| ATI | 2020 Q4 | $12.7 | -53.11% | -59.3% |
