Metal Fabrication Industry Report

April 2021



Exploratory Data Analysis

Distribution of the Response

Correlation between Covariates and Response

Avg Pct Change Sd Pct Change Avg Vol Pe Ratio Price to Sales Ratio Price to Book Ratio Price to Fcf Ratio Debt to Equity Ratio Pays Dividend Dividend Yield Response
min -1.2% 0.7% 1990 0.00 0.030 -5.020 0.000 -17.000 0.000 0% -1.3800
first_quart -0.2% 1.8% 56400 7.96 0.510 0.903 0.132 0.450 0.000 0% -0.2630
median 0% 2.3% 156000 14.60 0.745 1.360 9.760 0.820 1.000 0.5% 0.0943
mean 0% 2.7% 392000 29.80 1.040 1.590 24.100 0.683 0.532 0.9% 0.1230
third_quart 0.2% 3.1% 396000 22.50 0.990 1.980 23.100 1.130 1.000 1.7% 0.5200
max 2.7% 12.8% 3060000 801.00 12.800 9.840 578.000 2.370 1.000 6.8% 1.3300



Model Tuning

Random Forest Models

Gradient Boosted Models



Final Models

Random Forest Model

Model Info and Metrics

  • min_n: 1, mtry: 5
  • Mean Absolute Error: 0.108
  • Root Mean Squared Error: 0.1793


Gradient Boosted Model

Model Info and Metrics

  • learn_rate: 0.1, mtry: 7, tree_depth: 7
  • Mean Absolute Error: 0.0058
  • Root Mean Squared Error: 0.0077




Future Predictions

Company Quarter Price RF Prediction GB Prediction
PRLB 2020 Q4 $141.05 79.35% 103.15%
CRS 2020 Q4 $23.16 30.72% 32.55%
SGBX 2020 Q3 $2.39 28.6% 31.54%
HAYN 2020 Q4 $20.77 26.85% 53.17%
HIHO 2020 Q4 $3.75 23.67% 63.64%
IIIN 2020 Q4 $22.64 10.48% 2.7%
VMI 2020 Q4 $155.73 8.1% 10.55%
MLI 2020 Q4 $32.03 3.1% -1.96%
NWPX 2020 Q4 $28.33 -4.72% -1.72%
AP 2020 Q4 $4.61 -11.46% -5.13%
MEC 2020 Q4 $11.06 -29.67% -48.54%
RYI 2020 Q4 $9.8 -32.39% -26.67%
ATI 2020 Q4 $12.7 -53.11% -59.3%